Should I stay or should I go?

The date of the referendum is round the corner. Its outcome will influence a number of economic and political issues for the UK as well as its role in Europe. How are the lives of EU Nationals likely to change post Brexit? United Poles, a Polish expats organisation, organises a debate about this subject on April 21 at the Polish Hearth Club (Ognisko). Magdalena Grzymkowska has asked some of the panellists about their opinion.

 James Dixon, barrister, No 5 Chambers

 What are the main risks and chances of Great Britain leaving the EU?

– Overall, having thought about this very carefully, I believe that it is in Britain’s national interest to stay in the EU. It is not a coincidence that we have now had over 70 years of peace within the borders of the European Communities and now the EU, whereas in the space of just 20 years the continent of Europe was ripped apart by two wars. The EU and not just NATO has been a great force for peace and security. We should never underestimate or forget that. I have personally experienced the value of living and working in different European countries and have learnt the languages of those countries (Italy, Germany, Luxembourg and Hungary). I worked in the Court of Justice in Luxembourg some years ago as a lawyer-linguist. I would recommend the learning of languages to anyone. Greater communication and integration between the peoples of Europe serves to enrich rather than undermine national culture in my view. It is also well documented that free movement benefits our national economy: the EU migrants here contribute more than they take out. Those who advocate to leave do not seem to address that key point. There is clearly a risk that we will vote to leave given the ‘them and us’ mentality that has been a feature of our politics, especially in recent years. Regrettably, demonising the foreigner, especially it seems those from southern and Eastern Europe (as in the rhetoric of Nigel Farage) holds sway in certain quarters. Clearly, the EU is not perfect and can improve and there are valid criticisms made but that is far from justification for leaving. They do though provide fuel to those who argue for Brexit and plainly remains a risk.

How Brexit would affect EU Citizens in terms of free movement?

– It is not possible to be certain as to the effect of Brexit on EU residents here. The advocates for leaving have provided very little clarity on what the legal status of EU nationals already resident in the UK will be. It is likely that their status will broadly remain as it is during the 2 year period while the UK negotiates the withdrawal with all the other Member States. However, that is far from certain and there is scope to bring in greater restrictions for EU nationals even in that initial 2 year period. In the medium to long term, it is likely that their rights will be adversely affected. Looking at what we know of recent developments in immigration policy generally, it is likely that minimum income levels will be imposed on EU nationals here (such as the requirement to earn £18, 600 per year or even £35,000 per year). The Home Office already seeks to deport EU nationals based on historical conduct from before they came to the UK. It is likely that is will use vague notions of ‘threat to public order’ to deport more if we are no longer in the EU. There is a real risk that families will separated and that EU residents will lose the greater protection in terms of procedural fairness and appeal rights that EU law currently provides. So more deportation combined will less ability to challenge it is a real spectre.

What about EU citizens who has businesses here? Should they move them to other countries?

– I would counsel against rash decisions not least because there will be a 2 year period of negotiation even if we vote to leave. There will therefore be time to take stock and consider the future. Once the 2 year negotiation is underway we will have a much better idea as to the UK government’s intention and it will be easier to assess.

There are a lot European students at British universities. What would happen with them?

– I would hope that their studies will not be affected and that any changes which come in, for instance a rise in tuition fees for them in line with those for so called overseas students, will not be retrospective. However, there is no guarantee of that and it is possible that students say embarking on year 1 of a three year degree in the autumn of 2016  could face a much more expensive year in the final year once a Brexit has fully embedded (from June 2018). That would very unfair but there Home Office has shown itself capable of changing retrospectively the goalposts unfairly in the Points Based system (current visa system for non EU student) and there is no reason why it would not seek do so in relation to EU nationals post-Brexit. University fees these days, after all, are big business.

James Fearnley, Communications Director for Business for New Europe

In your opinion: what is better for Britain – stay or leave?

– We are unambiguously in favour of Britain remaining in. We are stronger, safer and better off in Europe than we would be out on our own. Of course the EU isn’t perfect. No partnership is. But leaving Europe would risk our prosperity, threaten our safety and diminish our influence in the world. The benefits of being in clearly outweigh the costs. The current polls vary widely so no one should underestimate the potential for Britain to choose to leave. However, we believe that Britain will choose to be stronger, safer and better off in Europe than to take a leap into the dark.

Should EU Citizens be afraid of deportation after Brexit?

– The truth is we have no certainty over what would happen if we choose to leave. If we left the EU, it is not at all clear what would happen to citizens living and working here, and indeed Britons living throughout Europe, and this is part of the problem: there is no settled view on what out looks like. There are around half a dozen models the UK could settle on if it did leave the EU and none would provide the strength that the UK currently enjoys. If I were considering a vote to leave, the inability to answer this question would worry me considerably. Leave campaigners are trying to sell the British public the idea that we can retain our place in the single market but at the same time end freedom of movement. This is false. No such model exists. Leaving the EU will not stop freedom of movement, unless we also give up access to the world’s largest duty free market. European countries that have a trading relationship with the EU, like Norway, Switzerland and Iceland have higher rates of immigration, including from EU countries, than the UK.

What would happen with European entrepreneurs?

– EU citizens make a huge contribution to the UK economy including running valuable businesses across the UK. We want businesses investing in Britain and creating jobs. EU companies are the largest source of foreign direct investment in the UK. In the event of a vote to leave we would all be faced with a prolonged period of uncertainty while our relationship with the EU, and the status of EU citizens living and working within the UK, is negotiated. The former head of the civil service, Lord O’Donnell, suggested this period could last up to 10 years. Do we really want people who come here to work hard, pay their taxes, contribute to our economy and support our public services face such a lengthy period of uncertainty?

Scots are definitely against Brexit…

– A recent poll by TNS showed that 51% of Scottish voters support remaining in the EU, compared to 19% who back leaving. If the UK chooses to leave but a majority in Scotland vote to remain, Scotland’s future within the UK would be up for debate again. Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s First Minister, has said that such a vote could open the door to another referendum on Scottish independence from the UK. Two former prime minister, Sir John Major and Tony Blair, have both warned that a vote to leave could lead to the break-up of the UK. John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, points out that when Panelbase asked Scots if they would vote for independence if the UK had just voted to leave the EU, 52 per cent said Yes. In the short-medium term, like the rest of the UK, the fate of EU citizens residing in Scotland would be decided by whatever deal was agreed with the EU post-Brexit.